If you listen to their previous earnings call they are talking about long term growth similar to historical. Also in last call they mentioned a few times that they are comfortable in meeting their FY 2026 targets. They have a lot of room for growth in all service areas in North America and in ancillary (which are less capital intensive) in Australia. I don't know if you noticed but they updated their site a bit. You can actually see now that they have registered offices in South America also. Dormant still, but there. So they might grow 10% for one half year period, but over next 10 years, they have so much more room to expand with their own cash, no acquisitions and by pure bootstrapping of their model. Their biggest hurdle could be issues with China (Australian mining is for a greater part servicing China needs), and employee retention. Notice that short term incentives were not assigned in full this fiscal year. Most likely due to employee turnover (we know its not injury rate or NPAT growth - other KPIs for STI).
awesome writeup. how do you feel about declining glassdoor scores. since this biz is essential labor arbitrage, retaining talent is key to future growth/roic.
(not from australia so glassdoor could be the wrong site to use)
I never give much weight to glassdoor reviews since they are usually done by those who are changing jobs and wanting to get access to other companies reviews. Also, average ratings are usually provided by minor percentage of employees over some longer period. I saw Mader has 42 reviews, but period is not specified. It could be a low percentage of total employees over a period of few years.
4.32 in my case. As a shortcut to update my analysis you can take my IRR an multiply it with price at the moment of analysis and divide with current price. That should be some updated version of IRR. Have in mind that their North America business is growing great. You can follow on their social media how fast the fleet is growing, and they grow their fleet only if there is a reason to
Thanks Nicoper for this great article.
Any thoughts about the current outlook of ´just´ 12-13% for revenue and earnings growth? Could be once again a conservative forecast.
If you listen to their previous earnings call they are talking about long term growth similar to historical. Also in last call they mentioned a few times that they are comfortable in meeting their FY 2026 targets. They have a lot of room for growth in all service areas in North America and in ancillary (which are less capital intensive) in Australia. I don't know if you noticed but they updated their site a bit. You can actually see now that they have registered offices in South America also. Dormant still, but there. So they might grow 10% for one half year period, but over next 10 years, they have so much more room to expand with their own cash, no acquisitions and by pure bootstrapping of their model. Their biggest hurdle could be issues with China (Australian mining is for a greater part servicing China needs), and employee retention. Notice that short term incentives were not assigned in full this fiscal year. Most likely due to employee turnover (we know its not injury rate or NPAT growth - other KPIs for STI).
Thanks for reply! Buy & hold and keep calm.
awesome writeup. how do you feel about declining glassdoor scores. since this biz is essential labor arbitrage, retaining talent is key to future growth/roic.
(not from australia so glassdoor could be the wrong site to use)
I never give much weight to glassdoor reviews since they are usually done by those who are changing jobs and wanting to get access to other companies reviews. Also, average ratings are usually provided by minor percentage of employees over some longer period. I saw Mader has 42 reviews, but period is not specified. It could be a low percentage of total employees over a period of few years.
fair. thank you
What is the cost basis that you have for Mader? I like many things about the business, however, the multiples have expanded a lot recently.
4.32 in my case. As a shortcut to update my analysis you can take my IRR an multiply it with price at the moment of analysis and divide with current price. That should be some updated version of IRR. Have in mind that their North America business is growing great. You can follow on their social media how fast the fleet is growing, and they grow their fleet only if there is a reason to